Why are our rulers usually evil? And why do good rulers get replaced so quickly?
Do you need to be evil to rule longer? Not necessarily, but you need to be cunning.
This is part 1 of a series of posts on my analysis of power, in general, and the Philippine power structure, in particular.
1. Have a bigger army than your rivals
If you have a smaller army than your rivals, they’ll challenge you and you die. If you do win but suffer significant loses, then outsiders will invade and you die.
Ideally, you should have a monopoly over your country’s army - or at least have the capability to inflict enough damage to your rivals that they too get threatened by their own rivals. Otherwise, your country would suffer from endless coups and civil wars. At best, you die. At worst, you’re going to be a living trophy for whoever’s in power at the moment.
2. Have more key supporters on your side
You can’t rule your army alone and you certainly can’t rule an entire nation alone. You need generals and lieutenants to help you lead your army. You need bureaucrats and accountants to extract resources from your country to feed and pay your army. And you need police forces and judges to build a “justice system” which you can then use to (a) legitimize your rule and (b) keep the people from rebelling.
These are your keys to power. And you need to keep them on your side or they’ll replace you and you die.
3. Control the flow of treasure
To keep your key supporters on your side, you need to give them treasure in whatever form - money, luxuries, prestige, etc.
Yes, of course, you can be the “good guy” and help uplift your citizens somewhat. But every cent you spend on your peasants is a cent you don’t spend on your key supporters. If a rival promises to seize the money from the people to bribe your key supporters, they’ll switch and you die.
Remember: your key supporters have the same problem as you. They have they own key supporters they need to appease or they die. If you fail to give them their share, they’ll switch to someone who could and you die.
4. Minimize key supporters
Your country can only produce so much treasure. And like earlier, every cent you spend on a key supporter is a cent you don’t spend on the rest. A rival can offer larger shares to a smaller portion of your key supporters. And if enough of them decide it’s worth the risk, then they’ll switch sides and you die.
On a positive note: there’s a lower-bound of the number of key supporters you need to survive. So if you cull the rest, then your smart-enough rivals wouldn’t attempt to get you replaced. Be careful not to overdo it, though - or you die.
The main ideas here have been festering in my mind for years now, but they’ve only crystalized after I read the book Rules for Dictators and watched GCP Grey’s video adaptation of the book.
Next time, I’ll talk about how this applies to the Philippine context and how we might win the next elections. Spoiler: we might have to make uncomfortable compromises if we want to win as soon as possible.